Saturday, August 28, 2010

Seattle Real Estate Report: Wa. to have strongest housing market by 2014

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Report: Wa. to have strongest housing market by 2014

It's been a mixed bag of good and bad news for homeowners in the Seattle area lately.

Prices are up. But the forecast is bleak. The recovery has begun, but Seattle is lagging. Oh, and you should be renting, anyway.

Things seem to change week to week, but most homeowners didn't buy as a short-term investment, right? If you're in for the long haul, maybe there is some positively good news for you.

A new report from Fiserv and Moody's says Washington will have the strongest housing market in the nation by 2014. Leading the way will be the Bremerton-Silverdale area, with a projected home-value increase of 44.7 percent.

Seattle prices are forecast to rise 25.5 percent. That's right behind Tacoma, with a projected increase of 33.1 percent.

Oregon is No. 2 on the list, followed by Michigan, California and Nevada.

So sit tight homeowners. It's been a rocky ride, but at least one report sees better days ahead.

See the full story from Bloomberg Businessweek here.

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Posted by Gerry Spratt at August 6, 2010 11:11 a.m.
Categories: ,

Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 11:37 a.m.

isn't this bad? The crazy fluctuations in the market were what caused all of the problems a couple of years ago. That sounds wildly over-priced, I don't see wages in this area rising that much.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 11:52 a.m.

Crazy Fluctuations? It was going in one direction, UP!

It was the banking system that loaned out to people that couldn't afford it that inflated the prices and gave us more artificial spending power that was backed by their homes.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 12:44 p.m.

Good thing I have a low Mortgage rate, an awesome place, and can wait as long as I have too....woot woot. Glad I didn't let the market screw me in 2005 when people were out of their minds thinking their trashy homes were worth a half million...


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 12:54 p.m.

this is correct. seattle is all out of land and boeing and microsoft are ramping up the jobs big time in the next few years. both are increasing production thru the roof. prices will rebound sharply in less than 3 years in fact. to make a great profit in real estate buy now at 10% discount of price and buy 1 point down on the already low int. rates. Hang on for 20 years and you'll make a hundred thousand in equity! The extra bank inventory will not last long once demand turns around. rent ratio is now following in line with area incomes...


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 1:25 p.m.

I'll believe it when I see it. I have serious doubts about this news.


Posted by tuddo at 8/6/2010 1:46 p.m.

I wonder where people in Tacoma will find jobs to pay their mortgage with the largest employers moving to bask in the bright lights of Seattle and other larger business centers. Will Almond Roca still taste the same if it is made in Federal Way? I think the forecast for Tacoma is a little off-kilter, especially with all of the vacant foreclosed condos in town.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 1:54 p.m.

people who aren't working in tacoma but live there and commute to seattle...that is who. BTW tacoma is projected to rise higher than seattle because it never experienced the great rise in prices in the first place... it has more room to grow. If one does their homework these things become obvious...


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 2:07 p.m.

I don't believe any of this. This looks to me to be a piece designed to keep us in line and paying our mortgage payments.

We are all looking for some good news that will give us some renewed energy to keep going. They are feeding us this garbage when they know that it is all made up. If you keep your house based on this article, you will lose. Housing prices won't bottom until at least 2014. We are going to lose another 20% at least.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 2:24 p.m.

duh that is why you offer 10% less and buy int. rates down 1 point to get to the bottom. sorry to hear you bought your home in 2006-2007 and are pays to do the homework even during the best of times. Whether it is the stock market, commodities or real estate...find out if your investment is overvalued every few months. I was constantly running the rent ratio on my home every 3 months in marysville. I realized a bubble as soon as 2004, sold in 2006. I bought the house for 187K in 2001, sold it for 300K and am waiting for the bottom to buy again. I have 120 grand to put down. it is time to buy now w/ 10% off and 1 point down on the int. rate. this article is right on. people's incomes in seattle everett and tacoma are falling into line now at 3 times prices. banks inventory will deplete quickly once the resilient seattle economy wipes it out here shortly. mark my works...this will happen. don't miss the boat!


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 2:25 p.m.

#562273 - I think you are pretty close to right on the money. Now the banks are being SUPER shady and not lending ANY of the bail out (republican fleecing of america) money to the middle class for loans. It's mostly being used for bonuses and CEO (read republican contributions) salaries.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 2:26 p.m.

Tacoma is disgusting.


Posted by Testerman at 8/6/2010 2:36 p.m.

Who comes up with this crap? Housing is massively overvalued, and will likely take a huge hit in the next few years.


Posted by veritas rex at 8/6/2010 2:47 p.m.

Home prices are likely to go up, and with these low mortgage rates and potentially quite a few fence-sitters already pre-approved, once they start to tick up a bit, a new bull market will begin.

Booms and busts are a nature of capitalism. I have no problems watching those that made stupid decisions go out of business or bankrupt. This is what provides the opportunities for we who did not over extend and actually have a positive net worth with access to credit to expand our wealth.

Some here would call it greed. I call it price selectivity. Wealth is made by buying assets cheaply and selling them when they are expensive, not the other way around.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 3:01 p.m.

This is hilarious. Our new in 2004 Maple Valley Home, with upgrades has lost 21% of value. I'd like to believe it would gain back all of that by 2014 but I'm doubtfull, we've still been losing value, partly because of horrible planning by Maple Valley and Black Diamond to build thousand's of Unnecessary houses. It's going to be a local recovery, specific to certain area's I'm afraid.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 3:17 p.m.

If these guys are so good about forecasting good times how come they didn't forecast bad times? Maybe they have a new crystal ball.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 3:28 p.m.

I REMEMBER LOTS OF DREARY FORECASTS FOR REAL ESTATE IN 2004!. Nobody listens as long as the prices keep going up. Nobody cares in the end if you lose your rear as long as they keep making real estate commisions... you alone have to watch out for yourself! run the numbers...the data will always set you free.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 4:22 p.m.

Why cheer or hope for high house prices its great for banks and governments but why would the average person want high prices$ Wouldn't it be much better to buy a home say for $60,000 pay it off in 4 or 5 years and be done with it, just think less taxes no interest to the banks more money for retirement, savings, vacations, rv's, cars, and boats you know the stuff that helps the economy. Besides when house prices go up you just transfer wealth from the old to the young.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 4:47 p.m.

I really hope they are wrong. I don't want prices to go that high, that's hyper-inflation.


Posted by Marine Vet at 8/6/2010 5:19 p.m.

This is good news for our region. I'll bet that as gas prices continue to rise, housing near the city will increase at a faster rate. We just refinanced and love our place. We'll still be there in 2014, so it will be interesting to see what happens.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 6:09 p.m.

I tried to refinance my loan but couldn't because I owe more than what the house is worth.


Posted by Kary L. Krismer at 8/6/2010 8:28 p.m.

In October 2002, reported in Money Magazine, predicted that Seattle was one of the cities most likely to burst. As it turns out, we were one of the last.

Paying any attention at all to predictions like this is giving them more attention than they deserve.


Posted by pennyws at 8/6/2010 9:22 p.m.

Anyone attempting to tell us what future housing markets at this juncture will look like in 2014 is an ignoramus.

Move along people. There is no substance here.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/6/2010 10:30 p.m.

This article is total BS. What's wrong with these people printing this crap?

It's a financing business. FHA is the new subprime. If you think selling a house at 4.5% is hard to people with 580 credit scores on 3.5% down with tax credits and garbage then just wait until it is 7% and you actually have to put 10% down again.

I am on the court house steps every Friday. Housing it's near the bottom of anything, and Seattle is no exception. Their is so much distress out there, prices have no where to go but down. They just don't do it in a straight line.


Posted by usedbookman at 8/6/2010 11:24 p.m.

We haven't gotten anywhere near bottom, yet. First, there's the pent up supply of foreclosures to work through, then there's the seconds dip of Obama's double dip recessiom.


Posted by ksea at 8/6/2010 11:41 p.m.

Step right up
Step right up
Step right up
Everyone's a winner, bargains galore
That's right, you too can be the proud owner...


Posted by Tenochtitlan at 8/7/2010 1:49 a.m.

Housing prices are not going to soar. They're going to rise very slowly for years to come.


Posted by eljefe at 8/7/2010 4:31 a.m.

Step right up
Step right up
We're going' outta business
Givin' you da business
Step right up...

Seattle Area: Winner two years in a row of Forbes' prestigious "America's Most Overpriced City" award. And we're supposed to believe these jive-s Madame Cleos who mysteriously couldn't predict their own downfall?

Somebody call Dionne Warwick. Or at least Tom Waits.


Posted by palobrea at 8/7/2010 7:44 a.m.

Cheap houses in Phoenix! Upscale Scottsdale is getting hammered so if you want a $2mil house for under a mil then you are in luck! Awesome desert views are cheap right now. If the Puget Sound manufacturing base can keep its jobs then maybe the article has some merit. Otherwise, King Co could be the next Fire-Sale City.


Posted by PatD at 8/7/2010 8:22 a.m.

The pool of people with jobs and an intact credit rating are becoming scarcer and scarcer. Unemployment is still rising. Prospects for a return to normal employment levels within a decade are not bright. That circumstance combined with a huge inventory of foreclosures, short sellers and distressed mortgages make it very hard to say where a "bottom" would be.
Then again, if the GOP manages some sort of elective comeback they will try to gin up the financial sector to restart the real estate swindle all over again.
The real estate market is inversely dependent upon the unemployment rate. Some bright spots where jobs happen to occur but overall prices have not stopped falling.
Any happy talk about the housing market brings to mind that old saying:

Those that know don't say, and those that say don't know !


Posted by AvalancheChief at 8/7/2010 8:29 a.m.

Anyone who is telling you that home values are going to go up 10% annualized year over year for a four year period is selling you snake oil. These are the exact same predictions that were made during the boom for cripe sakes. Seattle is projected to decline for the next two years, 9% to 20% depending on whos math you use and that seems rather likely. So a 25% increase by 2014 means there is a 45% increase in two years.

Ya - right. Nothing to see here people but false hope of more coming false wealth.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/7/2010 9:00 a.m.

Two words:

irrational exuberance

Sustainable price increases in any market can only come about from the fundamentals. Either a long term supply shortage. Or a long term rise in demand. Or both.

Is there solid evidence to suggest that either or both will be at work in the next four years?
-There is a surplus of homes in the market that does not appear to be diminishing soon. Foreclosures continue. Many large single family and multi family residential projects remain in moth balls. Appropriately zoned land remains under built.
-There is a contraction of demand brought about by credit collapse and loss of purchasing power (jobs, income, etc).

All the available evidence is to the contrary. It is irrational to reach a conclusion that runs contrary to the available evidence. To be exuberant about rising home prices in the Seattle market over the next four years is irrational.

irrational exuberance



Posted by pelicanpete99 at 8/7/2010 9:26 a.m.

You guys are right. How's about we take some predictions for the housing market, and draw them out of a hat and write some articles.

It's hard to imagine prices rebounding that fast. The last bubble was fueled by speculation and easy credit. Neither will return that soon.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/7/2010 11:15 a.m.

Ya Sure, you betcha. Moody's, one of the the compaies that rated all of those mortgage backed securities A+, is now thinks they can predict the Seattle Market in 2014.

Whatever they say now, believe the opposite, if you want to hold on to what little you have left. They want THAT too.


Posted by georges at 8/7/2010 11:43 a.m.

This housing story is so untrue, anyone to believe this, is not living in todays world. Alot of people think we will be going back to the way it was in the passed, the so called good old days, that is not going to happen, the new normal is a very slow growing economy, it is going to be flat for years with high unemplyment. Best get use to it.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/7/2010 12:11 p.m.

Goldman released a report saying the area was going to drop another 20% last month.

Moody's and Golman probably are both invested in the new housing derivitives. It doesn't much matter if the market goes up or down, they will make their billions one way or the other.

Taking the family farm- its been the big banks game for decades.

The next time some mortgage broker asks you to over-leverage yourself 3-5-10 times over and drown in consumer debt- just say no.


Posted by DavidB at 8/7/2010 12:32 p.m.

BS! There's no economic substance to a story like this. The housing market has a long ways to go before it recovers and a lot can happen between now and 2014.

Moody's had a Triple A rating on AIG up until the government bailed them out. They also were responsible for rating the mortgage backed security bonds that caused the Great Recession. Why would anyone trust Moody's reports on anything! They have no credibility!


Posted by unregistered user at 8/7/2010 3:48 p.m.

All the losers who can't get home loans are dismissing this article. Sorry your monthly rent check is paying someone else's mortgage. Wait... no I'm not.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/7/2010 3:59 p.m.

Posted by unregistered user at 8/7/2010 3:48 p.m.
All the losers who can't get home loans are dismissing this article. Sorry your monthly rent check is paying someone else's mortgage. Wait... no I'm not.

Are you living with your parents?


Posted by unregistered user at 8/7/2010 4:03 p.m.

HaHa. Outed another loser who can't get a home loan!


Posted by skydiver1013 at 8/7/2010 4:24 p.m.

The greater Seattle area is about to fall into the same property tax trap that slammed California to the point of revolt. The truly sad part is the fix; Proposition 13 was passed by voters not a tax reform from their own government. The California Government could care less about any of the problems people encountered with the property taxes. It was always about the money! Thousands of families including retired couples lost their homes when property taxes exceeded their income for a home they lived in for 30 years. They could afford the home when they bought it but appraisals, land values, and property taxes forced thousands out of their homes yearly, others were just sized by the State for back taxes.

Our representatives in Olympia and our governor could care less about this problem to Washington voters. Watch Liberal "Progressives" Tax families out of homes they lived in for decades. Their advice will be to move to a place where you can afford. Well we can afford the home just not the Taxes so get rid of them and all the Marxist politicians who defend them!


Posted by me4prez at 8/7/2010 4:50 p.m.


People pay a premium to live in Seattle. And this region is much more wealthy than most others in the United States. You would hope that people are well aware of this when they buy a home in Seattle. As the housing market picks up over the next few years, home values will offset higher property taxes.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/7/2010 4:58 p.m.

There's no way we'll see these values go up. Mortgage rates (which follow treasuries) are going up significantly the next few years to cover all our new debt, which will not allow homeowners to spend as much on homes. If anything, the new rates will force prices down.


Posted by Kary L. Krismer at 8/7/2010 5:10 p.m.

Washington property taxes are nothing like California property taxes. California's system is absurd.


Posted by Mike Littlefield at 8/7/2010 6:21 p.m.

Worried about the world ending two years earlier in 2012? In my lifetime, they've promised the end of the world seven times (1964, 1969, 1975, 1984, 1994, 2000 and 2006) and I've been disappointed every time. Eschatological predictions have been just as reliable as our economic predictions.


Posted by excitable_boy at 8/7/2010 6:40 p.m.

This is terrible reporting. Did anyone else notice the article did not give any REASON for these predictions? The idea that Washington will have the strongest housing market by 2014 was not backed up with any reasoning for the claim. I'm sure the article in must have given a reason but the PI does not seem to have any interest in reporting it here.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/7/2010 7:50 p.m.

this is correct. seattle is all out of land and boeing and microsoft are ramping up the jobs big time in the next few years.

Microsoft is laying off 4,000 people this year, most of them right here in Stumptown.

N.B. the market they mention is not Seattle overall but Bremerton, which is heavily dependent on the state ferry, which has been cutting service and is plagued with problems. This is probably depressing home prices in the area, making it look (to a computer) that they are primed for growth.


Posted by Clem7 at 8/7/2010 10:04 p.m.

Glad to see most are not taking this bs -

jobs, jobs, jobs; outlook bleak; therein lies the final nail in the coffin -

This mess is here for a while -


Posted by unregistered user at 8/7/2010 11:24 p.m.

Ho hum. Homeowners win in the mile. Sprinters are renters, but left behind in the long run.


Posted by DavidB at 8/8/2010 7:31 a.m.

Hey unregistered user (troll), if you believe home prices will increase and you agree with the story give your reasons why. Anyone who understands basic economics will question how any study could make such a prediction with the threat of a double dip recession looming over the nation and world economies.

Insulting people who posted valid reasons why they don't believe prices will increase is not productive for readers of this forum. I guess it gives you something to focus on briefly instead of your declining equity.


Posted by Kary L. Krismer at 8/8/2010 3:50 p.m.

Clem7, I just hope that the people who recognize this as BS do so because it's BS, not just because they have a different prediction that they think is better.


Posted by SeatecAstronomy at 8/8/2010 9:40 p.m.

Increase by 44%+? I'd like to have some of whatever they are smoking. It would take away all my pain in one swell foop.


Posted by GlennRoberts at 8/10/2010 7:29 p.m.

All you disgruntled home owners, please call me. I'll help you sell your house before it goes down any further.
Oh, I see, you don't own a home, you're just disgruntled. I get it. Take it out on anyone but own inefficiencies.


Posted by unregistered user at 8/12/2010 8:34 p.m.

Everything is true!
Go in look look:
Believe that you may need.


Posted by Leanne Finlay at 8/15/2010 12:24 p.m.

Kary, one reason Seattle and WA are expected to do better in the coming years is b/c of the Californians fleeing earthquakes and taxes :-)!

But seriously folks. I don't think we're going to see any market be 44% higher priced in just 3 or 4 years.

However, here is some information on interest rates and buying power. Today's market has a great supply of homes, and really low interest rates. Buyers can do very well today.

$100,000 at 4.5%, fixed for 30 years = $506.69

$100,000 at 5%, fixed for 30 years = $536.82

$100,000 at 5.5%, fixed for 30 years = $567.79

$100,000 at 6%, fixed for 30 years = $599,55

$100,000 at 6.5%, fixed for 30 years = $632.07


Posted by Leanne Finlay at 8/15/2010 12:31 p.m.

Let me clarify one thing -- while I don't expect to see any of the markets be 44% higher priced in 3 or 4 years, I do expect to see them be higher priced.

Historically, people expected a typical rate of return/price increase on their homes at about a 3% per year range. That's pretty stable.


Posted by brianfink at 8/23/2010 10:48 a.m.

Did you know that 70% - 90% of all credit reports have errors on them? In fact, the vast majority of negative items on a typical credit report are valid. Therefore, if you simply dispute all the negatives on your credit, those items that are valid will most likely be verified by the creditors and remain on your credit report.

It doesn't matter whether the negative credit item is valid or not. Anyone can dispute the credit reporting agencies' right to report the negative credit item, not whether it is valid. Since none of the 3 major credit bureaus (Equifax, Experian and Transunion) are in compliance with Section 609 of the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA), they must remove all unverifiable items from your credit report - ALL OF THEM!

Every "credit repair" company out there uses the dispute process allowed under FCRA to attempt to
repair your credit. By disputing the accuracy of items on your credit report you are essentially playing the slots - you are hoping that all three credit bureaus are unable to complete their investigation within the time allowed. The odds of all three bureaus is nearly impossible!

You are disputing the reporting law - not whether or not an account is yours, but whether or not the credit bureaus have that verifiable proof they are required by law to have on that account. Under the FCRA, the credit bureaus need to provide you with a copy of verifiable documentation if it is requested by you as the consumer. The three credit bureaus are required to have a copy of that same verifiable proof.

You simply have a right to receive a copy of the Original Creditors Documentation. When you request that same verifiable proof from the creditor, they usually comply very quickly and will often times fax or mail you a copy of your account application/history within 24 hours.

Here is what we is VERY interesting! Anyone who uses this process will NEVER RECEIVE a single copy of verifiable proof on a single client account! They do not have them on file! All credit bureau reporting is done electronically via email or fax. But that is NOT what the law says must be done.

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